BY DR. TONY M MONDA
Even though Africa is considered one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions exposure and vulnerability to climate change in Africa are multi-dimensional with socio-economic, political and environmental factors interconnected.
Greenhouse gases are the major contributors to climate change caused by:
carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from burning of fossil fuels as well as deforestation and other
land-use activities.
Methane (CH4), that comes mainly from livestock and municipal waste management.
Nitrous oxide (N20), from agricultural activities, related mainly to the use fertiliser.
Fluorinated gases (including chlorofluorocarbons and hydro fluorocarbons), that result from
industrial processes, refrigeration (including air conditioning) and some consumer products.
Although carbon dioxide is the most commonly occurring greenhouse gas, methane and fluorinated gases in particular are more powerful agents of the greenhouse effect.
The link between human and animal populations with the surrounding environment is particularly close in developing counties, including Zimbabwe, where animals provide transportation, draught power, fuel, clothing as well as proteins – i.e.: meat, eggs and milk.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), has estimated a 70% rise in the demand of
animal protein between now and 2050. Yet, in various sub-Saharan Africa countries between 20% – 60% losses in animal numbers were recorded during serious droughts in the past decades. In South Africa dairy yields may decrease by 10-25% due to climate change.
Multiple African countries are projected to face compounding risks from reduced food production across crops, livestock and fisheries, increased heat-related mortality, heat-related loss of labour productivity. Flooding from rising sea level, especially in West Africa are projected as a result of climate change.
Climate change will have serious consequences on livestock production across Africa in multiple
ways, both directly and indirectly. The most important impacts will be experienced in animal health and productivity as well as yields of forages and feed crops. Increased temperatures and reduced rain will cause important drops in forage production.
Both vector-borne livestock diseases and the duration of severe heat stress are projected to become more prevalent under global warming.
For example, by 2050, global warming at 2°C rangeland productivity is projected to decline 42% for West Africa.
In Southern Africa the annual numbers of hot days have increased over the last four decades and there is increasing evidence of increased heat stress impacting agriculture and human health.
From 1961–2015, the mean annual temperatures over the region increased by between 1.04°Celsius and 1.44°Celsius. in northern Botswana and Zimbabwe the annual temperatures between 1961–2010 increased by 1.6°C–1.8°C; while the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days have decreased.
Drought frequency and duration are projected with global warming increases above 1.5°Celsius over large parts of southern Africa with decreased precipitation in North Africa.
Risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply with at least 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually across large parts of Africa, reaching 50–180 additional deaths per 100,000 people annually in regions of North, West, and East Africa for 2.5°Celsius, and increasing to 200–600 per 100,000 people annually for increases of 4.4°Celsius.
Seasonal transmission and distribution of vector-borne diseases are expected to increase with
temperature increases above 2°Celsius; exposing tens of millions more people to loss of livelihoods and hunger, mostly in West, East and Southern Africa. Thousands to tens of thousands additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in West, Central and East Africa.
Global warming at 2°Celsius and above 3°Celsius, meteorological drought frequency will increase and duration will double from approximately two months to four months in parts of North Africa, the Western Sahel and Southern Africa.
Additionally, 3°Celseus global warming in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reduce labour capacity in agriculture by 30–50%.
Global warming above 2°Celseus will also cause a reduction in yield for staple crops across most of Africa.
Future global warming will negatively affect food systems in Africa by shortening growing seasons and increasing water stress.
By 1.5°Celseus increase yields are projected to decline for olives in North Africa, sorghum in West Africa and for coffee and tea production in East Africa.
Climate change and climate variability will also impact forests and their capacity to deliver the wide range of goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend for their livelihoods and resilience.
In various African regions climate change is contributing to encroaching desertification, decreased productivity and dieback of trees from drought and temperature stress; increasing wind and water erosion, storm damage, increased frequency of forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks, and landslides and avalanches.
Climate variability and change is negatively impacts the health of tens of millions of Africans through exposure to extreme weather and unfavourable temperatures, as well as increased range and transmission of infectious diseases.
Mortality and morbidity is expected to escalate with further global warming, placing additional strain on health and economic systems, undermining improvements in health and future socio-economic development.
If climate change remains unchecked it will impact negatively on all living things; including agriculture and our precious cattle.
Governance for climate resilient development should include long-term planning, all-of-government approaches, trans-boundary cooperation and benefit-sharing, development pathways that increase adaptation and mitigation and reduce inequality, and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) if we are to overcome the ravages of climate change.
Dr. Tony M. Monda BSc. DVM. DPVM, is a agro-veterinary epidemiologist and an independent agro-economic consultant researcher. Contact him on 0773 805 700 or email
tonymichelmonda93@gmail.com or tonym.MONDA@gmail.com
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